Why You Should Adopt a Structured Approach to Betting
Why You Should Adopt a Structured Approach to Betting
- Building a Stable Betting Model
- Part 1: Understand What You Are About to Do
- Part 2: Learn Your Probability Theory
- Part 3: Improve Your Spreadsheet Skills
- Part 4: Know Your Sport and Other Betting Markets
- Part 5: Always Collect Data for Your Model
- Best Chances Of Earning A Sustained Profit On Sportsbook
For many sports betting players, the modus operandi is to read the news, check the latest odds, then go on their favourite sports betting website to place some bets, hoping that they come out victorious and take home a profit. And for the most part, this is largely their routine, and it hardly strays far from that.
But what if we told you that there is a way to inject some structure and system into your betting patterns to ensure that you give yourself the best possible chance of turning a profit for each bet you make?
The first thing you need to do is build a predictive betting model that you can fall back to anytime. It will involve a good deal of work; long hours of entering data, setting up databases, sorting out spreadsheets and constantly testing and retesting to find out what works and does not.
And even then, there still would not be a guarantee that you will earn sustained profits as the betting world is always volatile.
On the other hand, you need to consider that bookmakers have the sharpest minds working for them 24 hours a day, seven days a week, using all the tools at their disposal to create the odds that millions of people are trying to beat. Therefore, it takes a good amount of dedication and having your wits about you before seeing any tangible returns. Some say half the thrill is in the chase.
But the rewards are worth the effort, not to mention the various practical and theoretical lessons you will learn along the way. The first part of the model is always the hardest to build, but as you go along, it does get easier.
We will be discussing the parts involved in creating a stable model for yourself, and the fundamental things to consider when starting to build one.
Despite being the simplest part of the equation, it is still something that many people tend to overlook—the premise of what the online betting model is supposed to achieve.
The core purpose of a betting model is to assess the current potential of a team or player. Then, used to compare to its opposition to gauge the likely outcome of the contest.
In short, what a player should do with a betting model is to create an independent point of reference that allows you to determine the probability of all possible outcomes in each match or tournament.
Ideally, your betting model should let you be able to recognise where the value lies in any given betting. Another way of phrasing this is that your model should provide you with a clearer expression of a given team’s potential, more than what the bookmaking odds tell you.
Once you have created your model for whichever sport that you are thinking to bet on, you will be surprised by how effective it can be when identifying value in the market.
Although value is scarce in the markets, plus the fact that any betting model is not an exact science, you will still get most of your bets right. A fully developed statistical betting model will allow you to see opportunities that any average betting player cannot see.
It might sound complicated, but it is not if you invest the time to understand more about probability theory. Although it can be boring at times, understanding the fundamentals of probability theory is not just solely on the theory alone, but it is also about the inspiration you get from it. The more you understand probability theory, the more imaginative you can become with your betting models.
You will be able to use the knowledge acquired to develop all kinds of interesting and unique ideas plus angles that you had not considered before. Of course, you will be able to develop a predictive model using basic maths, but it might not be the bookie ending machine you have always imagined having at your disposal.
This might sound crazy, but what does spreadsheet skills have anything to do with online betting? Before the computer came along, some bettors had to use graph paper to make sense of their data, and the process was slow, clumsy, inefficient, but it was all that they could do.
But once the spreadsheet came along, bettors could easily get a lot more out of their data via databases and some basic PHP programming. No, you do not have to be a programming genius to build your betting model; most successful bettors are not programmers either way.
However, the more you know about spreadsheets and the like, there is only more to gain for you, and the more powerful your analysis and testing will be. Most importantly, you are making efficient use of your time.
Realistically, the path of progress would see you start from learning the ins and outs of each function of the spreadsheet, and once you are familiar with that, you can begin to think about building databases and writing queries.
Here are some areas that you can begin to focus on when upping your spreadsheet game:
1. Filter Data
- Filter data by a particular field, value, or range of values (e.g., display the scores of matches from Matchday 2, or show scores on constructed response items only).
2.Paste Data As “Special” to Change Its Form
- Taking one form of data (e.g., from an underlying calculation) and presenting it in another form (e.g., as a raw value); this operation requires “pasting special,” or pasting data in the desired format.
3.Use Conditional Formatting
- Conditional formatting can help call out patterns in the data (e.g., turn all cells with a value above 70%).
4.Use “if” Statements
- “if” statements are used to count or calculate based on a particular parameter (e.g., list the number of items with a probability of more than 60%).
5.Calculate Weighted Averages
- Overall averages weigh components more than others (e.g., calculating probability and the odds of certain matches or with certain teams differently).
- The concatenate feature is used to merge and manipulate data from multiple cells (e.g., create a new column that takes the data in the column for the first name and combines it with the first letter of the word in the column for the last name).
7.Do Basic Arithmetic
- Using spreadsheets to do basic arithmetic (e.g., finding the sum of a set of numbers, finding the correct percentage on your profit margins).
- Using spreadsheets to determine the average for a single row of data (e.g., determining what the average odds are given across different bookmakers for any given match).
- Taking a set of data that is oriented in one direction and transposing it so that it is oriented in another direction (e.g., transposing a set of standards listed in a column and so that they display in rows).
- Sorting data so that it is ordered in a specific way (e.g., from highest to lowest score, alphabetically by last name).
When it comes to developing your betting model, one of the best things to do is start with a sport that you know well, and a league that you know like the palm of your hand.
This is because if you do not understand the fundamentals of the sport, then life will be extremely difficult. After all, it will be harder for you to make an informed analysis and assessment of the performance of the sport’s participants.
More so, understanding your favourite sport also includes an extensive understanding of the betting markets for said sport. Knowing the characteristics of your betting market that you are going to attack is the very core of your betting model’s identity—is it handicap betting, correct score, or line betting? So, let’s jump into these points “5 Online Betting Strategies to Lookout For ” to start you off in the world of professional sports betting.
To surmise, the betting market that you wish to find value in will determine how you will assess a team’s performance. Therefore it is vital to know both the sport that you are going to bet in plus the nature of the betting market itself.
Also, remember to bear in mind the limits of the bookmaker and the market’s liquidity, as the type of bet you are allowed to put down plus the amount of money that you can throw into a bet are things to consider before spending hours building your betting model.
For example, while you can make a killing on the 2nd division in the English Premier League, will you be able to keep up at a rate that makes the time spent on the model worthwhile?
Our advice is to keep your focus on the more mainstream leagues and stay away from the obscure ones—especially when it comes to developing your first model at least. One thing to note about mainstream bookmakers is that they are way more sensitive to successful betting in these types of leagues by moving quickly to limit your betting if they have a feeling that you have the edge in a league that they would admit readily to not knowing it as well as they could.
Not to mention that bet limits in said leagues are usually very low. Therefore, if you decide to move your money to another betting exchange, you might end up having a tough time getting your money matched in the lower leagues. Ultimately, it is always your incentive to aim high because that is where the money is, and it is where the challenge is too. Long story short, be sure to build a betting model that will provide you with options and provide for you in the long term.
To allow your model to do its job, you are going to need data. These include final scores, and ideally extensive statistics that you can break down and integrate into an algorithm. Most importantly, you will need historical odds for which to test your model on.
But when it comes to sourcing your data, where is a good place to start? Does it come readily in spreadsheet form? How can you source it in the format that you desire? This is the difficult part but frets not, sources are abundant on the internet for a wide number of leagues.
Some may be free, some may cost you an arm and a leg, but either way, it is still worth taking the time to look for good sources around the web. You may even find some gems tucked away in the far reaches of the internet.
Ironically, although the internet has a treasure trove of information, sometimes you may not necessarily be able to find out what you are originally looking for in the first place—especially if you are looking to create a model for the more obscure sports leagues.
If this is the case, then you might have to augment a data source from another provider—but do this only as a last resort because manual data entry will drain you of your energy and time.
To make life easier, our advice is that you should take the time to become familiar with data scraping software as this software will allow you to directly scrape data from websites into spreadsheet format.
It is simple given that there is a great range of intuitive software and learning how to do this can save you hours if not days or weeks in terms of data collection. However, if you wish to do it the old-fashioned way, then remember to tell yourself: “you only have to do it once.”
While the art of placing a bet seems two dimensional in the sense that players only have to look up the odds and go with the snap judgement of what they think is best, implementing an organised system or workflow into your betting patterns can greatly improve your efficiency, find out which areas within the sports that you are following has better value, and overall allowing you to work with data and develop interesting and unique angles.
All those allow you to have the best chances of earning a sustained profit in the medium to the longer term of your time betting on your favourite online sportsbook.